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Africa’s biggest economy has crashed into recession

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Growth in non-oil sectors of the country’s economy has also been badly hit, as Business Insider’s Elena Holodny wrote in May, with manufacturing taking the biggest hit. Non-oil GDP contracted by 0.38% in Q2, according to a tweet by Kale. The country’s decision to unpeg the naira against the dollar does not appear to have led to a hoped-for influx of dollar-investment. Instead, the government is now dealing with inflation.

“This is very bad news for Nigeria’s government, which has justified the current FX system as a method of promoting non-oil industries,” Ashbourne said. “It is now clear that these policies have — as we’d long argued — made a bad situation worse.”

While things look pretty bleak for the economy, research from Barclays circulated to clients on Wednesday argues that the very worst of Nigeria’s crisis may be over. Economic activity in Q3 16 continues to be hampered by security concerns in the Niger Delta, ongoing FX shortages, rising inflation and significantly tighter monetary policy. That said, the decision by militants to stop attacks, the implementation of the 2016 budget and better availability of FX, despite it remaining a massive constraint, suggests a marginally better outlook for H2.

“Economic activity in Q3 16 continues to be hampered by security concerns in the Niger Delta, ongoing FX shortages, rising inflation and significantly tighter monetary policy. That said, the decision by militants to stop attacks, the implementation of the 2016 budget and better availability of FX, despite it remaining a massive constraint, suggests a marginally better outlook for H2,” Ridle Markus argued in Barclays’ Sub-Saharan Africa Daily note.

Markus did note, however that “for the year as a whole, we fear that the economy is set to contract, which will be the first full-year recession since 1991.”

IBTimes

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